John Hunter's blog posts (all time)

Theory of Knowledge: Can We Trust Our Memories?

Tue, 21 Apr 2026

people may well overestimate their ability to predict. They therefore may under-appreciate the problems due to poor prediction. They may also not see that their predictions are not very accurate and therefore should call into question the theories upon which those predictions are based.

Also this shows the importance of trying to cement the understanding of agreements. Sometimes people will think writing down what was decided in a meeting or in a discussion is not needed because we will remember. But memory is very malleable.

Effective Communication is Explicit

Tue, 21 Apr 2026

Making communication explicit creates a process that is less likely to result in problems that stem from communication failures...

Writing on a flip chart what was decided in a meeting along with all the action items (including who is responsible) is another example of a practice to make communication explicit.

Distorting the System, Distorting the Data or Improving the System

Mon, 20 Apr 2026

In Fourth Generation Management (I highly recommend this book, by the way), Brian Joiner provided an excellent summary of the options to get better “results” (as measured by the data used).

The options are to:

distort the system
distort the data
improve the system

Knowing How to Manage People Is the Single Most Important Part of Management

Mon, 20 Apr 2026

The challenge with managing people is not that good sources on what is important don’t exist it is that far too often we make superficial application of management ideas and then give up and superficially try another management idea.

Learning from the gemba is important. But superficially visiting the gemba and doesn’t work. Without an understanding of how the components of a management system fit together and a long term commitment to create a management system that focuses on respect for people the organization fails to capture most of the gains possible with better management of people.

Cheng Hoon Teng Temple (Temple of Green Cloud), Melacca

Sun, 19 Apr 2026

The Cheng Hoon Teng temple (Temple of Green Cloud) is a Chinese temple practicing the three doctrinal systems of Taoism, Confucianism, and Buddhism. It is the oldest functioning temple in Malaysia; built in 1673.

The image shows a close up of artwork in the temple.

Photos of Little India in Singapore

Sun, 19 Apr 2026

The image shows Masjid Abdul Gaffoor.

Support of Top Management is Not Sufficient

Sun, 19 Apr 2026

Adopting a new management system can’t happen unless executives change their daily work and change how they manage.

Asian Civilizations Museum in Singapore

Sat, 18 Apr 2026

The image shows: Uma Parameshwari, bronze statue, India

The Asian Civilisations Museum’s flagship at Empress Place opened in 2003. Occupying over 14,000 square metres at the newly-restored Empress Place Building, it houses 11 galleries which showcase over 1300 artefacts from the Museum’s growing collections on the civilisations of China, Southeast Asia, South Asia and West Asia/ Islamic.

Egytian Statue in Front of the The Temple of Dendur at the Met in NYC

Sat, 18 Apr 2026

Colossal Statue of Amenhotep III Reinscribed by Merneptah, 1390–1353 B.C.. The statue is from Thebes, Luxor, in the Temple of Amun.

The Temple of Dendur, in the background, was built during the reign of Augustus Caesar in the Roman period.

The room in the Metropolitan museum is quite excellent with a huge window looking into Central Park.

Better Health Through: Exercise, Not Smoking, Low Weight, Healthy Diet and Low Alcohol Intake

Fri, 17 Apr 2026

These 5 activities/state reduce the risk of chronic diseases: regular exercise, not smoking, healthy bodyweight, healthy diet and low alcohol intake. How these were defined: ...

Silicon Valley Shows the Power of Global Science and Technology Workforce

Fri, 17 Apr 2026

Even with the challenges created by the culture in Washington DC against non-European foreigners the last 15 years Silicon Valley continues to prosper due to the talents of a pool of global science and engineering talent. Other countries continue to fumble the opportunity provided by the USA’s policies (largely a combination of security theater thinking and a lack of scientific literacy); and the strength of Silicon Valley’s ecosystem has proven resilient.

Earnings by College Major – Engineers and Scientists at the Top

Thu, 16 Apr 2026

As we have posted about for years engineers do very well financially. This chart shows the median income by college major (the data includes those who went on to get advanced degrees) based on data for the USA.

Engineering holds 6 of the top spots in the graph shown above and 8 of the top spots for those that didn’t earn an advanced degree. Pharmacy-sciences-and-administration and Math-and-computer-sciences made the top 10 of both lists.

Outdoor Air Pollution Resulted in 223,000 Cancer Deaths in 2010

Thu, 16 Apr 2026

It is very difficult for individuals to cope with systemic failures (allowing excessive pollution that kills hundreds of thousands of people a year, for example); individual can wear masks to reduce negative impacts of air pollution. These types of risks should be dealt with at the government level. Those that argue that we don’t need nanny states protecting us from dangers that individuals have trouble coping with individually are not taking a very scientific approach to how societies can make life better.

Hyperloop – Fast Transportation Using a Better Engineering Solution Than We Do Now

Wed, 15 Apr 2026

Elon Musk (the engineer and entrepreneur behind Tesla electric cars and before that he helped create PayPal) has a very cool idea of how to provide fast long distance transportation (faster than a plane). Essentially it is a big version of pneumatic tubes that used to be used to send small packages around a building, as seen in the movie – Brazil

Experiment by Cole Porter

Wed, 15 Apr 2026

The lyrics were included in the book by George Box, my father and Stu Hunter: Statistics for Experimenters.

You all have learned reliance on the sacred teachings of science
So I hope through life you never will decline in spite of philistine defiance
To do what all good scientists do.
Experiment.
Make it your motto day and night.
Experiment and it will lead you to the light.

Medical Study Findings too Often Fail to Provide Us Useful Knowledge

Tue, 14 Apr 2026

A very significant part of the problem is health care research is very hard. There are all sorts of interactions that make conclusive results much more difficult than other areas.

But failures in our practices also play a big role. Just poor statistical literacy is part of the problem (especially related to things like interactions, variability, correlation that isn’t evidence of causation…). Large incentives that encourage biased research results are a huge problem.

3d Printers Can Already Save Consumers Money

Tue, 14 Apr 2026

I first wrote about 3d printing at home here, on the Curious Cat Engineering blog, in 2007. Revolutionary technology normally takes quite a while to actually gain mainstream viability. I am impressed how quickly 3d printing has moved and am getting more convinced we are underestimating the impact. The quality of the printing is improving amazingly quickly.

Iskandar Malaysia Economic Development Zone

Mon, 13 Apr 2026

What I see as the top priorities

reducing speculation in luxury housing in Iskandar
reducing government debt levels
reducing consumer debt levels
increasing the number of high paying jobs in IM – focus on health care is good (I more could be done there I would try), finance is another good target, manufacturing is decent but I seriously doubt IM will have huge numbers of high paying/high skilled manufacturing jobs (some yes, but limited). I would also target high tech, software development etc. I would work closely with organizations in Singapore and KL. I would focus a significant amount of effort on this area). Education is good (and worthily of continued effort) but provides limited high paying jobs.

Drugmakers Are Desperate to Know Why Placebos Are Getting More Effective

Mon, 13 Apr 2026

Medical research presents significant difficulties. The funding of the health care system also distorts behavior and pushes companies to focus on being able to justify selling drugs instead of focusing on finding effective solutions. Even without incentives distorting behavior, the challenges are difficult enough. Adding the distortions just makes it worse.

It is wonderful we have so many scientists accepting these challenges and spending their careers fighting the odds to help find us wonderful health breakthroughs.

Lazy Golfer Portfolio Allocation

Sun, 12 Apr 2026

The Lazy Golfer Portfolio (Annually rebalance the fund on your birthday and ignore Wall Street for the remaining 364 days of the year) contains 5 Vanguard index funds

40% Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX)
20% Total International Stock Index Fund (VGTSX)
20% Inflation Protected Securities Fund (VIPSX)
10% Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX)
10% REIT Index Fund (VGSIX)

Global Workplace

Sun, 12 Apr 2026

I see an increasing number of opportunities for countries that encourage entrepreneurship and high skill jobs. I relocated to Malaysia and in doing so did a bit of research. It is difficult to get a long term visa in most countries without a full time job (and given the complexity of hiring foreign workers this often means dealing with companies that do a lot of it...

Phased Retirement

Sat, 11 Apr 2026

I have long thought the binary retirement system we have primarily used is less than ideal. It would be better to transition from full time work to part time work to retirement as people move into retirement.

Global Stock Market Capitalization from 2000 to 2012

Sat, 11 Apr 2026

Looking at stock market capitalization by country gives some insight into how countries, and stocks, are doing. Looking at the total market capitalization by country doesn’t equate to the stock holdings by individuals in a country or the value of companies doing work in a specific country. Some countries (UK and Hong Kong, for example) have more capitalization based there than would be indicated by the size of their economy.

Looking at the Malaysian Economy

Fri, 10 Apr 2026

Since I am living in Malaysia now, I pay attention to Malaysia’s economy. There are many reasons to be positive but the large consumer and government debt in Malaysia is a serious concern.

The Growing Market for International Travel for Medical Care

Fri, 10 Apr 2026

Medical “tourism” is a potentially huge market. The size of the market is greatly aided by the extremely expensive and broken USA health care system...

The Risks of Too Big to Fail Financial Institutions Have Only Gotten Worse

Thu, 9 Apr 2026

I think the risks are real and potential damage is serious. Where to hide from the storm is a much tricker question to answer. When in that situation diversification is often wise. So diversification with a focus on investments that can survive very bad economic times for years is what I believe is wise.

Investment Options Are Much Less Comforting Than Normal These Days

Thu, 9 Apr 2026

I really don’t know of a time more disconcerting than the last 5 years (other than during the great depression, World War II and right after World War II). Looking back it is easy to take the long term view and say post World War II was a great time for long term investors.

Pine Hill Trail, Fraser’s Hill, Malaysia

Wed, 8 Apr 2026

Pine Hill Trail is the longest trail in Fraser’s Hill. I found it to be a wonderful hike. It is quite a bit of up at down at the beginning.

Batu Caves, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Wed, 8 Apr 2026

Batu caves is one of the most popular Hindu shrines outside India, dedicated to Lord Murugan. It is the focal point of Hindu festival of Thaipusam in Malaysia. To reach the caves you must climb 272 concrete steps up the limestone formation that make up this site...

Introduction to Fractional Factorial Designed Experiments

Tue, 7 Apr 2026

Scientific inquiry is aided by sensible application of statistical tools. I grew up around the best minds in applied statistics. My father was an eminent applied statistican, and George Box (the person in the video) was often around our house (or we were at his)...

Give People Enough Rope (and the Right Rope) to Succeed

Tue, 7 Apr 2026

You want systems that let people take on challenges without too many restrictions but with enough support and training that you don't leave them hanging.

...

the ropes should suit their situation. A tightrope over a chasm is fine for a trained acrobat with a balancing pole. It is foolish for someone without the right training or tools. They would be better served with something else - a rope bridge with railings.

Providing background material in advance of discussions

Tue, 7 Apr 2026

I see a systemic failure to provide background material in advance of discussions in many organizations.

In meetings when lots of data is provided on some issue, that normally would be better handled by an email in advance (or could be some reporting system or whatever - but an email to look at urls of certain data...) to let people review the data.

Experience Teaches Nothing Without Theory

Tue, 7 Apr 2026

Our brains are great at creating theories and testing them even without us understanding that is what is going on. But managers need to push past this subconscious learning to understand the theories behind their actions or they will spend lots of time on activities that are wasteful, similar to the bird in this webcast...

This bird doesn’t understand the theory behind their instinct. Therefore the bird can’t understand that a worm is not likely to burst through the pavement. Too often managers are applying behaviors without understanding the theory (or without evidence showing that the practice based on the theory is effective – failing to practice evidence based management). And so the managers don’t understand that the behavior will not be successful given the conditions they find themselves in.

Theory of Knowledge in the Deming Management System

Mon, 6 Apr 2026

The System Of Profound Knowledge® (SoPK) is the culmination of W. Edwards Deming’s work on management. The four areas of the system are: appreciation for a system, knowledge of variation, theory of knowledge and psychology. This post explores the theory of knowledge in the context of Dr. Deming’s management philosophy.

“The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance – it is the illusion of knowledge.” – Daniel J. Boorstin

Confusing Customer Focus (when not thinking systemically)

Mon, 6 Apr 2026

...If I buy a car from a dealer they don’t sell it to me for $100. They don’t agree to not tell the government so I can avoid sales tax. They don’t agree to sell me a car that is not legal in the state. Customer service does not mean doing what is in the interest of the customer irregardless of laws, regulations, good business practices, etc..

I would say doctors don’t give patients anti-biotics for viral infections (but actually they do). They shouldn’t...

The Growing Use of Apprenticeships in the USA

Sun, 5 Apr 2026

Apprenticeships are a great option for many people. For one thing you don’t have to take on a huge debt burden (previous post: Personal Finance Considerations for Going into Debt for Education). Also for many careers and apprenticeship is what is needed, not a college degree.

Bezos on the Internet Boom (2007)

Sun, 5 Apr 2026

The webcast shows Jeff Bezos, Amazon.com founder and CEO, speaking at TED on the internet boom. He compares the boom to the gold rush highlighting the similarities. But then he compares the internet to the development of industry around electricity. I think he is exactly right on the internet: “there’s more innovation ahead of us than behind us.”

We Should Put Solar Panels Above Parking Lots

Sat, 4 Apr 2026

It is more expensive to build the solar arrays and infrastructure above existing parking lots (compared to an empty field) but it is a great use to space. We should be encouraging such development.

Packaging Improvement

Sat, 4 Apr 2026

This is another reminder that tackling problems directly is not always the best strategy. The packaging doesn’t actually change the taste, but really it is not the taste that is likely a concern but rather the perception of taste. To me this is very similar to the studies on people preferring wine they are told costs more...

Expand the View of the System to Find Ways to Improve Results

Fri, 3 Apr 2026

By expanding the system view and looking at the results of the entire system it is often possible to find improvements that are not possible by only looking at “your” system. These changes can sometimes be more challenging to accomplish as they may require convincing others to make changes.

Annual Performance Evaluations are a Poor Management Practice

Fri, 3 Apr 2026

When you understand the challenges with evaluating a complex system it isn’t hard to know that evaluating individuals is not easy. Much of the evidence of individual “performance” is so dependent on impacts within the system that are totally out of even the individual’s influence. Yet it is easy to find numbers within a complex system that can be used to argue for or against an individual’s performance.

The contributions any individual brings to an organization is largely dependent on the system in place (see: 94% Belongs to the System).

10x Productivity Difference in Software Development

Thu, 2 Apr 2026

I think these orders of magnitude are not present between people in many jobs. And I think people’s ability to correctly access who are orders of magnitude better is often faulty. But my experience leads me to believe the difference between exceptional software developers and average (not even below average) is very high.

In many fields interruptions are costly (and multi-taking is wasteful. In software development those interruptions are often much more costly than in other fields.

Coopers Rock State Forest, West Virginia

Thu, 2 Apr 2026

See more photos of my visit last year to Coopers Rock State Forest in West Virginia. The day before I visited Rocky Gap State Park in Maryland.

How Downsizing is Handled When Management Respects People

Wed, 1 Apr 2026

Developer #1 is the guy you want to lead your development team. He will take a project and run with it, and it will come out better than you had hoped. He’ll find the fatal flaws in your specifications, either propose a change or work around them as appropriate, and do it in an extensible way that will save you time in the future. He really is the cream of the crop....

Developer #2 is the guy you need if you already have a lead developer and he needs a code monkey who can get code out that works the first time...

Losses Covered Up to Protect Bonuses

Wed, 1 Apr 2026

Does it surprise you to learn traders would cover up losses to protect bonuses? It shouldn’t, it happens over and over. Would it surprise you that almost any bonus (or quota) scheme increases the odds that the data will be doctored to meet the goals? It shouldn’t. Intelligent measures to make such doctoring difficult can help reduce the practice. But it is a likely risk of any such goal.

As we have quoted Brian Joiner as saying: there are: “3 ways to improve the figures: distort the data, distort the system and improve the system. Improving the system is the most difficult.” So it is no shock that distorting the data is often the tactic people use (especially when the rewards are great or the punishment for missing is severe).

Unconscionable Executive Pay

Tue, 31 Mar 2026

The behavior of executives that take what they have no right to in unjustifiable pay schemes continues to be a disgrace... Excessive executive pay is both a sign of awful ethics and a driver of bad management action.

Drug Price Crisis

Tue, 31 Mar 2026

It is nice to find at least a couple of people at MIT that want to have MIT focus research on the public good instead of private profit. As I have mentioned too many universities now act like they are for-profit drug or research companies. That is wrong. Drug companies can do so, institutions with purported higher purposes should not be driven to place advancing science below profiting the institution.

Pleasing Customers

Mon, 30 Mar 2026

You need to provide customers what they want, which is not the same thing as what they say they want. Southwest airlines is a good example. Revealed preferences are more important than stated preferences.

Toyota’s Commitment

Mon, 30 Mar 2026

The Toyota Way is a management philosophy involving 14 principles that is the essence of the DNA of our organization and really all those who make up the company. In its basic form, the Toyota Way boils down to two fundamental practices: Respect for People and Continuous Improvement.

Systemic Workplace Experiments

Sun, 29 Mar 2026

... good old PDSA at work – try things on a small scale and then institute those experiments that succeed on a wider scale.

Management Advice from Warren Buffet

Sun, 29 Mar 2026

Charlie and I look for companies that have a) a business we understand; b) favorable long-term economics; c) able and trustworthy management; and d) a sensible price tag. We like to buy the whole business or, if management is our partner, at least 80%
…
A truly great business must have an enduring “moat” that protects excellent returns on invested capital. The dynamics of capitalism guarantee that competitors will repeatedly assault any business “castle” that is earning high returns.

Stupid Bureaucratic Requirement

Sat, 28 Mar 2026

Is it really unquestioningly doing whatever you are told that is the value that is what is being aimed for? Seems pretty clear to me from even this short article this teacher understands the constitution much better than most people and cares enough to take the values that constitution endorses seriously. While the government looks like they only care about getting their form on file and don’t care at all what the purpose of that form is (the purpose can’t really be just to coerce everyone to sign it, can it?).

...

Customers Get Dissed and Tell

Sat, 28 Mar 2026

There are those rare companies where interacting with them is not a dreaded experience: Trader Joe’s, Southwest Airlines, Ritz Carlton, Crutchfield...

...

And then instead of fixing the system, just burn the toast (follow the link for an explanation). Then wait for those that get the burnt toast to tell everyone that you sold them burnt toast. Then, after they do that, go scrape it for them.

Corporations Do Not Exist Solely to Maximize the Bottom Line

Fri, 27 Mar 2026

The corporation should seek to benefit all stakeholders (employees, customers, suppliers, etc.).

Car Powered Using Compressed Air

Fri, 27 Mar 2026

The car is said to have a driving range of 125 miles so by my calculation it would cost about 1.6 cents per mile. A car that gets 31 mpg would use 4 gallons to go 124 miles.

Losing Consumers’ Trust

Thu, 26 Mar 2026

People are emotional about their food safety. It is not just the final results that matter but the impression given. And the impression I think many see is that those involved in the food industry often place money about a mission to feed the world.

I think it is a mistake for any company to focus on only money rather than a larger purpose. But that is especially true if customers have an emotional connection to your product that requires customer to trust you care about them.

User Happiness with Search Engines

Thu, 26 Mar 2026

Awhile back I wrote about why I didn’t think the American Customer Satisfaction Index claim that Yahoo beat Google for customer satisfaction was evidence of a broken indicator. Well here is another indicator...

What Motivates Programmers?

Wed, 25 Mar 2026

...I will repeat my statement for all managers for all employees: your job is to eliminate de-motivation not to motivate.

If you really want to manage programmers well, read these blogs and take action to prevent yourself from becoming a pointy haired boss: Signal vs. Noise – Joel on Software – Paul Graham – Coding Horror – Scripting News – xkcd

Giving Away Your Service for Free on Weekends

Wed, 25 Mar 2026

Well, recently we figured out that we’re paying for a lot of bandwidth over the weekends that we don’t need, so we decided to make Copilot absolutely free on weekends. Yep, that’s right… free as in zero dollars, free, no cost, no credit card, no email address, nothing.

Nice Design Example, the eco-cook

Tue, 24 Mar 2026

Basically I just think this is cool. I could try and explain how it shows creativity and reducing waste… but really I just like it.